Summary

This project applied survival analysis to gas injector wells to quantify their expected operational lifespans and forecast future system capacity. The primary objective was to estimate how much gas injection capacity would remain over time, enabling comparison with projected demand and supporting resource allocation decisions for injector repairs.

Key Achievements

• Developed survival models to estimate failure rates and expected lifespans of gas injectors
• Produced forecasts of future gas injection capacity based on survival probabilities and injector inventory
• Identified potential shortfalls in gas injection capacity relative to system demand
• Supported business cases for increased resources and prioritization of gas injector repairs

Technical Approach

The project utilized the following methodologies:

• Survival analysis (Kaplan-Meier, Cox proportional hazards) to model injector attrition and estimate remaining lifespans
• Grouping of injectors by relevant categories (e.g., location, vintage) to compare survival curves
• Integration of survival model outputs with system demand forecasts to identify capacity gaps
• Statistical modeling to support recommendations for resource allocation and maintenance planning

This work provided a data-driven foundation for managing gas injection system reliability and ensuring alignment between available capacity and operational requirements.